Query- To Tim Jeromy

Discussion in 'PMP' started by _56468, May 13, 2019.

  1. _56468

    _56468 Well-Known Member

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    You are assessing two projects for risk. Project #1 has a most likely duration of 95 days with a standard deviation of 10 days, and Project #2 has a most likely duration of 110 days with a standard deviation of 5 days. All of the following statements are true except…?
    1. Project #1 is riskier than Project #2 because its standard deviation is larger
    2. Project #2 is riskier than Project #1 because its most likely duration is longer
    3. The maximum possible duration of Project #1 estimated at a 99 percent probability is longer than the most likely duration of Project #2
    4. Both projects can potentially be completed within 105 days.
     
    #1
  2. tim jerome

    tim jerome Well-Known Member
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    Project 1 and 2 are at opposition, so one of those is incorrect. If you have a range of 95 +/- 10 days, and a project 110 +/- 5 days, Project 1 has a range of 85 to 105 days, Project 2 has a range 105 to 115 days. The range of project 1 is 20 days to Project 2's 10 days.

    What does this lead you to consider?
     
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  3. _56468

    _56468 Well-Known Member

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    Project 1 is riskier, hence we can say option 2 is correct
     
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  4. Moghul.

    Moghul. Well-Known Member
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